Friday, June 12, 2009

READY FOR A LITTLE GOOD NEWS?

Aren’t we all ready for some good news about the economy, even if it’s a modest dot of light at the end of the tunnel?

Thursday (6/11) saw reports with better than expected results in the retail sales sector and jobless claims, which pushed stocks higher. As consumer spending accounts for about two thirds of our economic activity, investors watch retail sales numbers carefully. This piece of good news has lead to reports that “the recession may be easing” by those in the know on Wall Street.

Another piece needed to put the economy on the road to well being is the recovery in the housing market. And we do have some good signs in that direction as well.

Purchase and refinance applications are remaining steady following a burst of activity the past several months, according to the Mortgage Bankers Association, despite a small uptick in fixed-rate mortgage rates. As of Thursday, the average weekly Freddie Mac rate for a fixed rate 30 year mortgage was 5.59%, which was up from the previous weeks 5.29%, BUT down from a year ago, which was 6.32% .

According to the Federal Reserve’s Beige Book, which reports on real estate transactions,many Federal Reserve districts are seeing an increase in home sales. It's reported that new home construction “appeared to be stabilizing at very low levels”. This increase can be attributed to low interest rates, declining home prices, seasonal factors, and the tax credit now available for many first-time home buyers. (Also noted is a weakening of the commercial real estate market.)

The national media has tended to overlook some recent reports that indicate the housing market could be turning upwards finally. Instead, the focus in on foreclosures and increased delinquency rates. Trying to keep up with all the data and reports available to brokers on rates, activity on loan generation, and real estate sales keeps me hoppin’. We all know we need to focus on what happening in our local marketplace. But, by looking at the overall trend nationally, and at some specific areas, we can get a look at what’s happening on a deeper level than reported on the evening news. Remember, bad news sells more than good news, or gathers more viewers.

Clear Capital just released its Home Data Index report. It shows that within larger troubled markets small pockets of price stabilization are occurring; Cleveland and Sacramento – which are among the hardest hit markets in the US – as examples.It also reports that price declines are continuing, but appear to be slowing down, and especially in the Midwest and South.

The most encouraging signs are coming from the nation’s hardest hit markets, where a turnaround has started. The past three months in the San Francisco-Bay area, American and foreign investors, as well as first time buyers, are snapping up bank-owned properties as soon as they’re listed. And, amazingly, agents are witnessing bidding wars even on short sales according to a recent RISMEDIA report. In February 2008, California’s statewide inventory of unsold homes was a 15.2 months supply, compared to March 2009’s number of 5.8! Historically, a six month supply of unsold homes indicates a stable market; neither a buyers market nor a seller’s market.

Per RISMEDIA, Las Vegas, one of the worst markets in the country, has just seen March set the fourth best month for closed sales. The record months, set back in the "boom period", is predicted to be broken during this summer. A board member of the Greater Las Vegas Association of Realtors, Forrest Barbee, said “Things have been looking up but it’s going unnoticed. It’s going to take the data a little longer to catch up to the reality.”

The National Association of Realtors reported a rise of 6.7% in the number of pending sales of existing homes in April. It’s the biggest jump in more than seven years.

By looking at how the market is improving in the most depressed markets, we can evaluate the overall strength of the national market. The markets of Florida, California, Arizona, and Nevada comprise nearly half of the national foreclosures, so an upturn in those markets will be critical. I’ll be watching those numbers and sharing this data with you.

So, cautious optimism is the phrase of the day!

We want to thank you all for your continued business, and for sending InSight Mortgage Group, the referrals from your family, friends, and business associates. Please call us at the office, 913-642-3334 with any questions or comments. Regarding purchase loans or refinancing, email me at michele@wantinsight.com or dickw@wantinsight.com. We always look forward to providing you with the best customer care. Blessings.

No comments: